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Perspectives from Above the Noise -- Week of September 17th, 2018

Perspectives from Above the Noise -- Week of September 17th, 2018

September 17, 2018

Five for Five Daily Gains. U.S. stocks finished mixed on Friday, ending a positive week that sent the S&P 500 to its strongest weekly advance since mid-July. Equities reversed midday gains on reports President Trump wants to implement his previously threatened tariffs on $200B worth of Chinese goods, but gains returned before the closing bell. Investors also weighed a mixed bag of economic data.

Weekly Performance. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.21%, the Dow Industrials rose 0.92%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.39%.

Buyers Take a Breather. August retail sales rose just 0.1%, missing forecasts for a 0.4% increase, while on a brighter note, prior month retail sales were upwardly revised to +0.7% from +0.5%.

Consumer Sentiment Hits 6-Month High. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index jumped to a six-month high of 108.8 for September, amid heightened optimism about the economy. The contributing Expectations Index surged to a 14-year high.

Telecom Stocks Performed Best. Ten of the 11 major sectors advanced for the week, with Telecom (+2.89%), Energy (+2.06%) and Industrials (+1.92%) up the most. Financials (-0.32%), Real Estate (+0.42%) and Utilities (+0.44%) were the weakest performers.

Treasurys Weaken, 3% Yield Nears. Treasurys edged lower on Friday, sending the yield on benchmark 10-year notes up 2.6 basis points to end the week within a whisper of 3% at 2.997%. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened last Friday but ended the week down 0.46% at 94.927. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil rallied 1.83% on the week, ending at $68.99/barrel.

 What We’re Reading
 

Chinese Trade Talks Canceled?

Goldman Doesn’t See Recession

IMF Working with Argentina

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 Week’s Economic Calendar
 

Monday, September 17: Empire State Manufacturing Activity;

Tuesday, September 18: NAHB Housing Market Index;

Wednesday, September 19: Housing Starts & Building Permits, Current Account Balance;

Thursday, September 20: Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, Leading Indicators, Existing Home Sales;

Friday, September 21: Advance Markit U.S. Manufacturing & Services PMIs.

Market Watch
Stocks1-WkMTD3-MonthYTD1-Year
Dow Jones0.92%0.73%3.89%5.81%17.81%
S&P 5001.21%0.22%4.91%10.18%18.69%
NASDAQ1.39%-1.17%3.47%16.92%25.92%
Russell 30001.18%0.11%4.62%10.51%19.14%
MSCI EAFE1.78%-1.10%-3.34%-3.36%1.69%
MSCI Emerging Markets0.59%-2.49%-7.61%-9.49%-4.32%
Bonds1-WeekMTD3-MonthYTD1-Year
Barclays Agg Bond-0.11%-0.55%0.55%-1.51%-1.37%
Barclays Municipal-0.18%-0.46%0.34%-0.21%-0.00%
Barclays US Corp High Yield0.45%0.32%1.60%2.32%3.33%
Commodities1-WeekMTD3-MonthYTD1-Year
Bloomberg Commodity-0.11%-1.44%-7.10%-5.26%-1.50%
S&P GSCI Crude Oil1.51%-1.48%3.12%13.82%36.61%
S&P GSCI Gold0.06%-0.46%-8.19%-8.26%-9.65%
Source: Morningstar
Chart of the Week
More Job Openings than Job Seekers
 
View larger image »

The total number of job openings waiting to be filled climbed to a record high 6.9 million in July, marking the fifth consecutive month when available job openings exceeded the total number of unemployed job seekers. Prior to this year, the total number of job openings has not exceeded the total number of job seekers since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking job openings data in late 2000. By several measures, the labor market is the tightest it has been since 2000, and it appears the U.S. is near full employment based on most labor market indicators, with the exception of labor force participation rate, which is still below pre-recession levels. Chart 1 above illustrates how far we have come from the depths of the financial crisis when there were more than six job seekers for every job opening and the unemployment rate reached 10%. At present, the ratio between job seekers and job openings is 0.91 and the unemployment rate has been under 4.0% in four of the last five months. It is becoming increasingly challenging for employers to find qualified workers in many industries because of a skills mismatch. Despite this, the labor shortage is finally pushing up wages and in August, annual wage growth increased to a nine year high of 2.9%.

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The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index, which was originally called the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index, is a broad based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government–related and corporate debt securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency) debt securities that are rated at least Baa3 by Moody’s and BBB- by S&P. Taxable municipals, including Build America bonds and a small amount of foreign bonds traded in U.S. markets are also included. Eligible bonds must have at least one year until final maturity, but in practice the index holdings has a fluctuating average life of around 8.25 years. This total return index, created in 1986 with history backfilled to January 1, 1976, is unhedged and rebalances monthly.

The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index measures the USD-denominated, non-investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below, excluding emerging market debt. Payment-in-kind and bonds with predetermined step-up coupon provisions are also included. Eligible securities must have at least one year until final maturity, but in practice the index holdings has a fluctuating average life of around 6.3 years. This total return unhedged index was created in 1986, with history backfilled to July 1, 1983 and rebalances monthly.

The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Bond Index covers the USD-denominated long-term tax exempt bond market. The index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds, and pre-refunded bonds. Many of the subindicies of the Municipal Index have historical data to January 1980. In addition, several subindicies based on maturity and revenue source have been created, some with inception dates after January 1980, but no later than July 1, 1993. Eligible securities must be rated investment grade (Baa3/BBB- or higher) by Moody’s and S&P and have at least one year until final maturity, but in practice the index holdings has a fluctuating average life of around 12.8 years. This total return index is unhedged and rebalances monthly.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is a broadly diversified index that measures 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities in five groups (energy, agriculture, industrial metals, precious metals, and livestock), which are weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity. No single commodity can comprise less than 2% or more than 15% of the index; and no group can represent more than 33% of the index. However, between rebalancings, group weightings may fluctuate to levels outside the limits. The index rebalances annually, weighted 2/3 by trading volume and 1/3 by world production.

The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. Introduced in 1993, the VIX Index has been considered by many to be the world's premier barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ.

The MSCI All-Country World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging markets. The SMCI ACWI consists of 46 country indexes comprising 23 developed and 23 emerging market country indexes. The developed country indexes include: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the Uninted States. The emerging market country indexes included are: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Eygpt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates.

The MSCI EAFE Index is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets (Europe, Australasia, Far East) excluding the U.S. and Canada. The Index is market-capitalization weighted.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is designed to measure equity market performance in global emerging markets. It is a float-adjusted market capitalization index.

The MSCI Europe Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance in Europe.

The MSCI Pacific Index captures large and mid-cap representation across five Developed Markets (DM) countries in the Pacific region. With 470 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

The NASDAQ Composite Index includes all domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad based index.

The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership.

The Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market.

The Russell Midcap Index measures the performance of the mid-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 1000 Index. It includes approximately 800 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell Midcap represents approximately 31% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 companies.

The S&P 500 is an index of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry grouping (among other factors) designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is meant to reflect the risk/return characteristics of the large cap universe.

The S&P GSCI Crude Oil Indexis a sub-index of the S&P GSCI, provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark for investment performance in the crude oil market.

The S&P GSCI Gold Index a sub-index of the S&P GSCI, provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark tracking the COMEX gold futures market.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a crude oil stream produced in Texas and southern Oklahoma which serves as a reference or "marker" for pricing a number of other crude streams. WTI is the underlying commodity of the New York Mercantile Exchange's oil futures contracts.

The U.S. Dollar Index is a weighted geometric mean that provides a value measure of the United States dollar relative to a basket of major foreign currencies. The index, often carrying a USDX or DXY moniker, started in March 1973, beginning with a value of the U.S. Dollar Index at 100.000. It has since reached a February 1985 high of 164.720, and has been as low as 70.698 in March 2008.