January 6 - 10, 2020 Recap
• Stock Pare Gains on Jobs Miss. The longest- lasting bull market in history displayed remarkable resilience last week, posting weekly gains despite tumultuous geopolitical and military interactions with Iran. After Iran’s promised retaliation proved to be limited with no resulting U.S. casualties, investor sentiment recovered, buoyed by trade optimism and world growth prospects. Even the monthly payrolls report that showed wages and jobs growth cooled last month wasn’t enough to overly dampen investor sentiment.
• Weekly Performance. For the week, the Dow Industrials rose 0.66%, the S&P 500 gained nearly 1% (+0.98%), and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.76%. On Friday, the Dow slipped 0.46% after momentarily breaking above 29,000 for the first time and the S&P 500 slipped 0.27%, ending the week just short of its all-time high set on Thursday.
• Job Growth Slows. December nonfarm payrolls rose by 145,000, shy of estimates for 160,000, capping 2019 with 2.11 million new jobs added. December’s gains capped a 10th-straight year of payroll growth, the longest stretch in 80 years.
• Communication Services Led Last Week. Seven of the 11 major sector groups posted gains last week, led by Communication Services (+2.24%), Technology (+2.18%), and Healthcare (+1.51%). Real Estate (+0.32%) rose the least, while Energy (-1.07%) and Materials (-0.26%) fell the most.
• Treasury Yields Rise. U.S. Treasury prices declined last week, sending the yield on benchmark 10-year notes up 3.2 basis points to 1.82%. For the week, as Middle East tensions faded, the U.S. Dollar Index strengthened 0.53%, while WTI crude oil posted its largest weekly loss since July, slumping 6.36% to $59.04/barrel.
China No Longer a Currency Manipulator
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Monday, January 13: No Major Releases;
Tuesday, January 14: Small Business Optimism, Consumer Prices;
Wednesday, January 15: Mortgage Applications, Producer Prices, Empire State Manufacturing;
Thursday, January 16: Jobless Claims, Import & Export Prices, Retail Sales, Philly Fed Business Outlook, Housing Market Index;
Friday, January 17: Housing Starts/Permits, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment, JOLTS Job Openings.
The U.S. economy added 145,000 new jobs in December and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.5%. Labor market growth remains healthy, but the pace of jobs growth slowed last year. In 2019, the economy added an average of 176,000 jobs per month. That is the slowest pace of annual jobs growth since 2011. Positively, jobs growth at this level is strong enough to prevent the unemployment rate from rising.
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The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index, which was originally called the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index, is a broad based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government–related and corporate debt securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency) debt securities that are rated at least Baa3 by Moody’s and BBB- by S&P. Taxable municipals, including Build America bonds and a small amount of foreign bonds traded in U.S. markets are also included. Eligible bonds must have at least one year until final maturity, but in practice the index holdings has a fluctuating average life of around 8.25 years. This total return index, created in 1986 with history backfilled to January 1, 1976, is unhedged and rebalances monthly.
The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index measures the USD-denominated, non-investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below, excluding emerging market debt. Payment-in-kind and bonds with predetermined step-up coupon provisions are also included. Eligible securities must have at least one year until final maturity, but in practice the index holdings has a fluctuating average life of around 6.3 years. This total return unhedged index was created in 1986, with history backfilled to July 1, 1983 and rebalances monthly.
The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Bond Index covers the USD-denominated long-term tax exempt bond market. The index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds, and pre-refunded bonds. Many of the subindicies of the Municipal Index have historical data to January 1980. In addition, several subindicies based on maturity and revenue source have been created, some with inception dates after January 1980, but no later than July 1, 1993. Eligible securities must be rated investment grade (Baa3/BBB- or higher) by Moody’s and S&P and have at least one year until final maturity, but in practice the index holdings has a fluctuating average life of around 12.8 years. This total return index is unhedged and rebalances monthly.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index is a broadly diversified index that measures 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities in five groups (energy, agriculture, industrial metals, precious metals, and livestock), which are weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity. No single commodity can comprise less than 2% or more than 15% of the index; and no group can represent more than 33% of the index. However, between rebalancings, group weightings may fluctuate to levels outside the limits. The index rebalances annually, weighted 2/3 by trading volume and 1/3 by world production.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. Introduced in 1993, the VIX Index has been considered by many to be the world's premier barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ.
The MSCI All-Country World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging markets. The SMCI ACWI consists of 46 country indexes comprising 23 developed and 23 emerging market country indexes. The developed country indexes include: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the Uninted States. The emerging market country indexes included are: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Eygpt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates.
The MSCI EAFE Index is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets (Europe, Australasia, Far East) excluding the U.S. and Canada. The Index is market-capitalization weighted.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is designed to measure equity market performance in global emerging markets. It is a float-adjusted market capitalization index.
The MSCI Europe Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance in Europe.
The MSCI Pacific Index captures large and mid-cap representation across five Developed Markets (DM) countries in the Pacific region. With 470 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
The NASDAQ Composite Index includes all domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad based index.
The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership.
The Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market.
The Russell Midcap Index measures the performance of the mid-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 1000 Index. It includes approximately 800 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell Midcap represents approximately 31% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 companies.
The S&P 500 is an index of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry grouping (among other factors) designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is meant to reflect the risk/return characteristics of the large cap universe.
The S&P GSCI Crude Oil Indexis a sub-index of the S&P GSCI, provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark for investment performance in the crude oil market.
The S&P GSCI Gold Index a sub-index of the S&P GSCI, provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark tracking the COMEX gold futures market.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is crude oil produced in Texas and southern Oklahoma which serves as a reference or "marker" for pricing several other crude streams. WTI is the underlying commodity of the New York Mercantile Exchange's oil futures contracts.
The U.S. Dollar Index is a weighted geometric mean that provides a value measure of the United States dollar relative to a basket of major foreign currencies. The index, often carrying a USDX or DXY moniker, started in March 1973, beginning with a value of the U.S. Dollar Index at 100.000. It has since reached a February 1985 high of 164.720, and has been as low as 70.698 in March 2008.