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Integrated Insights -- Week of October 12, 2020

Integrated Insights -- Week of October 12, 2020

October 13, 2020

Markets continue to march on as we close in on US elections.  With less than a month to go, what is typically a bumpy ride coming into election day has been somewhat smooth--this despite the fact there had been no further economic stimulus from Washington.  States continue to loosen economic lockdowns and the market is reading this.  Lastly, as the autumn weather comes in, it will be crucial to see how viral infection rates are impacted. This will bring our leaders to decisions on economic mobility for the winter months prior to any hopeful vaccine candidates availability.

Here's what we are reading this week:

Weekly Commentary -- UK: a case study in virus dynamics -- BlackRock

  • The UK as a case study illustrates the dynamics of the three signposts we use in evaluating the virus shock: restart, policy revolution and economic scarring.

  • Talks around a pre-election U.S. fiscal package continued in fits and starts - though the path to enactment of any deal appears very narrow.

  • The International Monetary Fund may increase its global growth forecasts this week, from more bearish earlier predictions.

Is the dollar’s stumble a sign of things to come? -- Capital Group 

Recent U.S. dollar weakness may be signaling the end of a nearly 10-year dollar bull cycle. Key drivers include lower U.S. Treasury real yields, a large fiscal deficit and potential deglobalization.

Election Policy Scorecard -- Lord Abbett

Lord Abbett has published an interesting piece on likely policy changes based on different election outcomes.  This in turn provides a view of likely impact to fixed income & equity prices.